Where to go for the Economic End Times

Alright, some good news on the economic front today. Well, good news for the Washington region anyway. Business Week has decided that Arlington and the District are the top two cities to live in during the upcoming Horrible Recession. Now, because Business Week is by definition uncool, they gave Arlington the top spot and relegated the District to runner up. This unjustified slight aside, it’s clear that the region is in a pretty good position to ride out the upcoming storm.

Now, this is all well and good, but I want some more details. With all the changes D.C. has gone through in the last decade or so, how will this potentially serious downturn affect the rapidly changing neighborhoods that until recently were fairly crime-ridden and economically stagnant? To put it bluntly, can gentrification survive a recession?

Luckily, the internet provides us with tools to assess quandaries such as these (in a non-verifiable and factually dubious manner). Recently, Gawker asked a very similar question about the long-term viability of NYC neighborhoods. Their map is color-coded for the places they think are safe from the downturn, those that are at risk, and those that basically never saw much development or prosperity in the first place (yeah, the color scheme is pretty confusing).

Since Gawker didn’t extend this analysis to D.C. neighborhoods, we’ll have to look elsewhere for assistance. And fortuitously, a new site called Homethinking has just launched that matches neighborhoods in a given city to their “equivalent” areas in a different city. So all we have to do is tell it we want the New York equivalents to various District neighborhoods, and then check to see if Gawker thinks those neighborhoods are going down. Science!

Let’s see, I say we try this experiment with Columbia Heights, Logan Circle (of course), and Ledroit Park. According to Homethinking, Columbia Heights is like Harlem and Little Italy in Manhattan and Park Slope and Bedford Stuyvesant in Brooklyn (those familiar with New York neighborhoods may be having some doubts about the Homethinking comparisons at this point). Gawker says that Park Slope and Little Italy are not at risk, but that Harlem and Bed Stuy are marginal. Result: inconclusive.

How about Logan Circle, the San Diego Chicken of D.C. gentrification? Homethinking says it’s like Park Slope, Carroll Gardens, and Boerum Hill in Brooklyn and like the East Village in Manhattan. According to Gawker, all safely gentrified areas. Conclusion: Logan Circle stays rich. Which is probably a relief to the recently opened Bang and Olufsen store.

Finally, Ledroit Park, about as far east as you can go and still be in Northwest. Homethinking says Bushwick in Brooklyn and Harlem and Morningside Heights in Manhattan. Gawker gives those neighborhoods two “marginal”s and a “safe”. It looks like Ledroit Park is the iffy-est of our three examples. Which definitely fits with my impressions of the above areas.

So while the Washington metro area may be the safest bet in the country for avoiding meltdown madness, prospects aren’t equally rosie across all D.C. areas.

This incredibly obvious conclusion has been brought to you by the research team here at District, Schmistrict. Tell your friends!